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The criticality of lithium and the finance-sustainability nexus: Supply-demand perceptions, state policies, production networks, and financial actors

The Extractive Industries and Society, Volume 17

Aleksandra Natalia Wojewska / Cornelia Staritz / Bernhard Tröster / Luisa Leisenheimer

Jänner 2024

The prices of cash crops impact the livelihoods of millions of households in developing countries. While the influence of speculators on global commodity prices determined through derivatives exchanges is extensively dis-cussed, the contribution of hedgers to short-term changes in futures prices has largely been disregarded in the financialization of commodities discourse over the past two decades. This results in a failure to account for the inter-connected activities of increasingly consolidated lead firms within physical global value chains (GVCs) and derivatives markets. This article examines the pricing and hedging strategies of lead firms in the coffee, cocoa and cot-ton GVCs in relation to their activities on commodity derivatives markets. Based on Open Interest data as an indicator of derivatives markets activity, a measure of buying and selling pressure by trader categories is applied in a Generalized ARCH (GARCH) model. The findings of this article show that hedgers’ activities allow speculators to drive global benchmark prices so that they can benefit through combinations of financial hedging and physical trading strategies. As these practices of lead firms contribute to the trans-mission of futures prices along GVCs, smallholders and other actors in cash crops in producer countries are exposed to heightened price changes.

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